And so here we are on the verge of a General Election, and yes, this is just what everybody needs, another mouthy dickhead with a blog writing a highly speculative article about it, because there haven’t been nearly enough of those over the last few days.
But don’t worry, just as I post one of these articles something will happen six hours later immediately rendering several of its points obsolete. So I’ll add this caveat; providing the SNP aren’t outed as trafficking and then cannibalising malnourished Somali children, David Cameron doesn’t take to getting his dork out in Leicester Square during rush hour and pointing it at passing cars, and Ed Miliband stops aiming his Pollyanna suddenly gone Carrie serial killer glare at Tory activists masquerading as undecided voters and refrains from committing any further strategic faux-pas, I stand by everything I say and predict:
What the fuck is Ed Miliband (and the Labour party) playing at?
Being a dilettante I can only offer superficial observations, but the whole Labour campaign, from central office right on down to its grassroots activists and loyal electorate, seems fractured – and yes, this was the kindest euphemism I could think of. I could’ve picked a different word beginning with ‘f’, and I don’t mean fragmented.
Of course within any party there will be a divergence of opinion, even vocal dissention, but high up within the party apparatus itself, during an election? Well that takes some doing, or, in this case, incompetence.
Consider this sequence of events; Chuka Umunna was happy to throw Jim Murphy under a bus, crushing any perceived authority Murphy is thought to or claimed to have been given as Scottish Leader, compounding the embarrassment of Jimbo going off the reservation claiming he’d have a say in deciding Labour’s UK budget. Amateur doesn’t do it justice. But let’s be generous, at least Jimbo had the good sense to retreat into his bunker for twenty-four hours in the forlorn hope it would blow over.
Miliband’s continuously taken a hard line with his ‘no deals with Nationalists’ pledge in the last week. Between this and Murphy’s desperate duplicity – on practically every issue – the Labour message just isn’t resonating anywhere in the ‘provinces’.
There is some logic in Miliband’s stance towards the SNP. The polls are suggesting a Scottish wipe-out for Labour, so having already publicly cut off his balls, what difference does it make now if Miliband goes all Mortal Kombat and ‘finishes him’, leaving Murphy as collateral damage? After all, the main reason he became Scottish Labour leader in the first place was due to being passed over for a more prestigious cabinet position, and do One Nation Labour truly care about the 2016 Scottish elections? They’re done in Scotland, for the short term at least.
The other is that because Murphy’s failed so miserably to be the portrayed saviour – though, to be fair, he didn’t anoint himself as such and Scottish Labour’s failure is not all down to him – why not take a different tack? By using a sternly condescending tone and without a hint of goodwill, a lot of Scots will view Miliband’s rhetoric through a jaundiced lens as blackmail. But if the Labour leader can’t get through to undecided voters up here with good auld fashioned scaremongering, the kind that relies on obsolete voting etiquettes fomented by guileless atavistic traditionalism, then how can he expect Murphy, who was openly ridiculed by an underling of his cabinet, to successfully do it for him? After all, that’s what Murphy’s been doing for months, and, if you believe the polls, it’s had the opposite effect.
Taking a hard line on Nationalism makes sense if it’s directed at the voters in England. It’s an issue on which Labour’s desire to retain full voting participation at Westminster clearly diverges from the Tories equally self-serving push for English votes for English laws, but not for a second do I believe Labour have arrived at such a tactic rationally and therefore intentionally. And I’m sceptical that saving the Union is a red line issue for many English voters, it’s a minor concern at most. Even better, if you take a closer look, Ed’s no deals with Nationalist parties is extremely hypocritical, as Labour choose not to stand candidates in Northern Ireland, allowing the SDLP, who fall under the party whip, a free run to monopolise the Labour vote. However, the SDLP’s main objective is for Irish reunification, therefore breaking up Britain as we know it. So would supporting nationalist parties be okay if the SNP and Plaid were to agree to fall under the party whip too? Perhaps it’s simply because, due to the complexity and recent history of Northern Ireland, Labour see no realistic chance of Irish reunification. Meanwhile the route to independence for Scotland and Wales is far more straightforward, especially now that the idea of Scottish independence clearly has traction, and Labour will want to prevent the Welsh from getting fresh too.
Miliband’s stance towards Plaid Cymru makes no sense whatsoever as Labour’s polling numbers in Wales have been relatively stable. Essentially he’s telling Welsh voters that the best they can do is a Blairite Labour minority government. Those who are dogmatically entrenched in the faith and enslaved to party allegiance will lap it up, but those on the left who Labour have abandoned will see it for what it is – it’s the emptiest of threats from a man leading a party so bankrupt of ideas and mired in an identity crisis that it is struggling to win the popular vote.
They should be walking this election, but at best, the polls are showing them marginally ahead of the deeply unpopular incumbent Tory bastards, fresh off their even more unpopular coalition of loserdom. Even if Labour managed to retain their haul of seats in Scotland and Wales from 2010 they would still be projected to fall short of an overall majority. That’s pathetic.
Run a campaign? I wouldn’t trust Miliband and his advisors to run a fucking bath.
The media’s influence on this election, just what is it?
The excerpt (above) from the excellent Screenwipe struck a chord with me when thinking of the many reasons why the national newspapers would print such diverse front page headlines and articles with regionally slanted and targeted messages.
In times of uncertainty it behoves those with the political and financial power, and their subsidiaries who are bought and paid for propaganda purposes, to attempt to distract the populace form perceiving what’s happening with counter-intuitive speculation (thinking…) and using an odd form of myopic hysterical bleating, that the prospect of the establishment being forced to adapt to the benefit of the masses is somehow a bad thing.
This isn’t new, but it’s still a bizarre contrast where Labourites in England are complaining of Tory bias by the UK media, meanwhile up here in Scotland SNP supporters complain of Labour bias in the Scottish media. The latter certainly hasn’t worked, is the former working? Or is it the case that, as per usual, there’s a sizeable demographic of voters who will quietly vote Tory?
Sift through all the bullshit and that it’s fucking bullshit and it makes sense for the media to collude in this way – pimp Labour in Scotland and the Tories in England. It’s the most effective medium and method the Westminster hegemony has of protecting its position. If you can make the majority of people vote the same way they always have, it’s the most convincing way of portraying any argument for significant change as a minority view.
The Tories have been relatively quiet and elusive, and it’s worked.
These bastards should be on a hiding to nothing, yet here they are with a good chance of winning the most seats and possibly forming an even more hideous coalition than the last one.
As easy as it is to hate them, their approach has been the correct one – as little exposure to the electorate as they can feasibly get away with. Their economic policy is failing, the UK debt has risen, wealth disparity is widening (thanks to quantitative easing) and to keep ‘the scroungers’ in place they’re proposing an even more brutal austerity package over the next government term. Despite all this the Tories are projected to win the most seats. What does this tell us? That too many people vote for what they believe a party represents not the policies it enacts, and no meaningful change in UK politics will occur until that ends.
The solution is independence for all the UK nations and within each federalism and extensive local devolution to regional councils with a Proportional Representation voting system. That’s essentially the democratic alternative to what we have now.
The Tory Labour duopoly exists not because of tradition but due to a mixture of apathy and cynicism. How else do we explain that the largest bloc of voters in the UK have the least amount of choice?
If I lived in Bury or Borehamwood, I’d probably begrudgingly and unenthusiastically vote Labour or Green, even though there’s no party that ideologically sits in the vacuum between the two, where I and quite a number of voters reside.
Think of this way – if you’re living in England and provided you don’t have a reason to hate the Tories or weren’t brought up to, the Tories are only slightly to the right of a thoroughly Blairite Labour, so does it take a great leap to vote for them? It’s certainly less of a leap for someone who passively votes Labour to vote Tory, than it does for them to vote Green or Socialist.
Both Labour and the Tories roughly agree on zero hour contracts, austerity, university tuition fees, trident renewal, the Henry Jackson Society foreign policy, trickle-down economics, immigration, most kinds and levels of taxation – especially those that favour non-doms and of course NHS privatisation. Within this there are degrees of difference, think of it as Blairism as opposed to Thatcherism. Of the two Blairism is preferable, but it isn’t preferable. I don’t agree with not voting, but I understand why someone in England might look at the choice of the two with a level antipathy and think ‘what’s the fucking point?’
Will those crazy DUP creationists be part of a Tory lead coalition?
It ceases to be funny the moment it happens. Sodomy a sin? The earth is only four to six thousand years old? Sure mate. Crack Cocaine and Krokodil are good for you too. What’s next? Seals will use telepathy to convince our kids that they’re transgender? That the Giant’s Causeway was created by god? Oh wait, that last one is actually true.
This lot are just the kinds of dickheads I want in a cabinet meeting when education, scientific research and equality and minority rights are being discussed. Just don’t tell them that a percentage of elected MP’s are gay, or “gay marriage” – does anyone find that term oddly anachronistic and squeamish given the ethics behind it are supposed to be progressive and egalitarian? – is legal already.
Still, as the UK is one of the few remaining civilised countries left in the world not to have a clear constitutional separation of church and state – thanks to the House of Lords – it would be fitting if these fantasists formed part of a government. To both paraphrase and bastardise a well-worn one; only in Westminster.
But that’s being glib, the nightmare scenario is a Lib Dem and Tory coalition, with the DUP and whatever seats UKIP scrounge together teaming up, allowing Nigel Farage’s grotesque pound shop Oswald Mosley pantomime to continue. Not only will you have the Thatcherism of the Tories, the fawning subservient cronyism of the Liberals (a name change is badly required now) but it’ll be infused with the pure xenophobia of UKIP and ULDP’s Creationism dogma. It could easily give the Tories an excuse to become regressive on many social issues they may ordinarily be reticent to pursue.
So yeah, about Nigel Farage and his ‘party’.
Thankfully the fascination with them seems to be waning. Just as we suspected, by increasing their exposure, the focus was bound to shift to their disastrous policies, built on a cocktail of the cruellest principles of unfettered Thatcherism with dashes of their stereotypical Little Englander xenophobia, sexism and racism. Putting Farage in a debate setting has been particularly effective; having to compete for attention has driven him into toe curling soundbites of desperate megalomania.
So just do us a favour ‘Nige’, and fuck off now. Just like the National Front and the BNP before you, you’re a fad. A wet dream for garrulous poseur Daily Mail reading white van driving muppets to project themselves on to, but who, when it comes time to vote for it, aren’t sufficiently disillusioned enough to have the necessary spite or conviction to follow it through. Even if it will likely benefit the Tories, I’d love it if they ended up with no seats. Speaking of losing seats…
Will Douglas Alexander and Jim Murphy lose their seats?
Send this wee cuntmotherfucking rat twat back crying to his second or third property in Islington, or wherever it is.
Yeah. I know, every supporter of the SNP and Scottish independence would take Alexander and Murphy holding their seats if it meant the SNP took the other 57 in Scotland, but why should rationality and seeing the bigger picture stop us from indulging in some hypothetical schadenfreude?
Murphy’s an obvious choice as he’s the anointed saviour and fitting symbol of the contemptuously arrogant attitude that pervades Scottish Labour’s branch office. Somehow, someway, Murphy’s been complicit in making them more unpopular. The reasons are all very logical, with no power at all and having to work within the remit of the reductive watered down Tory policies of the London HQ, to counteract the SNP’s more popular proposals, Murphy’s had to make illogical promises on devolved matters, lie about the constitutional procedure in the event of hung parliaments, and of the SNP’s right as the majority government of Holyrood to call another referendum on independence – which it can’t, as the Edinburgh agreement was in effect a temporary transfer of powers from Westminster to Holyrood to allow the last referendum. He’s hired the ghastly duo of Blair McDougall and Tory McTernan to aid his campaign, and their internet presences are less popular than Aids, Gary Glitter’s attempts to reinvent himself as a children’s entertainer would be with parents or Justin Bieber is with middle aged working class men in Leith. That Murphy’s being backed by a sycophantic and increasingly tetchy Scottish media, who a large number of people have come to inherently distrust, and well, it’s no surprise Labour’s support has cratered.
While it isn’t all Jimbo’s fault – the rot set in years ago – he did sign up for the chalice, agreed to the terms and conditions and arrogantly assumed it wouldn’t matter, because Scotland always votes Labour in Genny Leckies. So given this it’s only fair he should suffer the consequences. Most polls have it as a tight race in East Renfrewshire, in the margin of error, so who knows? But should Murphy be defeated it would be confirmation of Scottish Labour hitting rock bottom. Make it so.
Just thinking, it would be great if someone got dressed up as a giant egg wearing a sign that says “soon” and followed Murphy around when he’s canvassing/soapboxing in the remaining days and hours. Jim’s looked gaunt and has worn the expression of a condemned man in recent weeks, but I’m sure even he’d see the funny side of that.
It’ll be funny if he has to scramble (pun sort-of intended – sorry) for a Scottish constituency to remain Scottish Labour leader having been booted out of his Westminster constituency in the General Election. Though, as we know, even if he wins he’ll have to forfeit his seat to remain Scottish Labour leader and stand for Holyrood in 2016. So let’s do him a solid and simplify things for him.
Now, Douglas Alexander, well, I could rant on, but I won’t, this link just about sums everything up. He’s set to lose his seat to SNP candidate Mhairi Black, aged 20. It would be a fitting and majestic humiliation for one of the biggest Judas rats and odious self-serving little cockmonkeys in recent memory. Plus, as a Brucie Bonus, Alexander has ingratiated himself into becoming the ubiquitous media mouthpiece for the London HQ. Not to mention Shadow Foreign Secretary, which, given he likes seeing Arab countries carpet bombed to validate his warped moral crusade against the lie that is Terrorism, is the right job for him. So, should you lose all of that, and your place on the expenses gravy train, to a twenty year old, could we call that ‘race to the bottom’ a precipitous one Dougie?
Hold on, Nick Clegg could be kingmaker again?
Let’s be clear – the idea is sickening on an ethical level not a democratic one. Clegg reminds me of a professional grass, you know, the kind that every school year you could remember had. They have no mates, so they try too hard to be liked, but when it comes to the crunch they have no sense of loyalty. They’re essentially cowardly narcissists who’ll happily see themselves as locusts, as cockroaches, true survivors if it infuses their private delusion that this trait is admirable.
Or to put it more succinctly – he’s one of Thatcher’s children.
Like Dougie Alexander and Jim Murphy he’s sweating over losing his seat, people of Sheffield Hallam, do the right thing and send this cipher packing.
Will there be a second (snap) election?
First, it’ll be highly unlikely this happens, but the thought of it as voter is hugely insulting. There’s nothing more craven than a snap second election. Basically it’s relying upon a bunch of people to be fickle enough to change their minds (again voting to punish a party, not for disliking their policies), or to be too apathetic to vote a second time, because the people we elected first time threw a strop and decided they couldn’t work together in governance. So, just to let you know in advance, I’m not changing my vote, get tae fuck.
So, who will win?
I dunno. Perhaps nobody. And that seems to be a problem for many folks. All our lives we’ve been conditioned, through the rotten and archaic FPTP system, to see general elections as a binary choice. After all it has to be a Tory or Labour lead government, in some form.
But does it? Why does it have to be a Tory or Labour lead government? Why the aversion to forming new parties or fringe parties ascending to greater power providing they fall somewhere on the moderate scale? Why does the idea of a minority government, or a government propped up by confidence and supply arrangement upset so many folk, why is the prospect of minority parties having a greater say in government treated with such scepticism, even derision?
Anyway, somebody will be PM, and there will be a government, so, that being the case…
A final prediction – because why not?
First the numbers, and why not go with fivethirtyeight.com? Nate Silver’s methodology is very rarely wrong:
When it comes to the crunch Miliband will do a confidence and supply deal with the SNP, Plaid and the SDLP because in the projection above that gets him to the 323 seat mark required to form a stable government (as Sinn Fenn won’t take their five seats) without needing to involve the Lib Dems. What’s the alternative? That he’s seen as standing aside and allowing the Tories to form a right wing alliance (a Tory, Lib Dem & DUP coalition gets them within range of forming a stable coalition) due to sheer hubris of trying to maintain his statesmen like preening of not bowing to Nationalism on the telly during the campaign? If Scottish and Welsh independence is such a red line issue (as he put it) for him and for Labour, just make the Nationalist parties agree, as part of any agreement, to have no independence proposals in any of their manifestos for the duration of the next five years. That will require concessions elsewhere, but will Labour voters in England, many of whom find themselves left of the party, but trapped into voting for Labour, leave in their droves if public spending is increased and trident is scaled down? C’mon now.
He could attempt to go down the minority Labour government route, but that requires waiting for Cameron, the incumbent, to fail to gain a vote of confidence or build a coalition, forcing him to resign. Miliband would then be appointed PM and submit a Queen’s speech, and goad any other potential partners to vote it down, but why take the risk?
Miliband talks of maintaining the union, but if the Tories remain in power we’ll have Cameron’s inevitable in-out EU referendum which could facilitate another Scottish independence referendum within the next parliamentary cycle.
Personally I don’t think any of these Unionists, or those who need to claim they are to appease an electorate, are under any illusions, it’s a matter of when and not if the UK breaks up. But if it can be helped at least don’t be the leader, or the party, who helped facilitate it. Miliband can be in power and avoid such ignominy and in the process sell it to his acolytes that he kept his word, which sounds good to me. But then again it’s Labour we’re talking about here, and should he win, this prat is proposing to install a stone cenotaph in the garden of Number Ten with his election pledges engraved on it. Aye Ed, because you need to do something like that to remember all the pledges you made to the millions of voters who helped put you in power. You fucking spatula. No wonder so many people hate politics and politicians.